A new report has surfaced that suggests free agent Shohei Ohtani’s realistic value is well over $600 million.메이저놀이터
ESPN published an article titled “Ohtani’s True Player Value” on July 15th, predicting his price tag when he hits free agency after this season.
The article’s author, Bradford Doolittle, first calculated Ohtani’s value based on his abilities as both a pitcher and a hitter. He quantified his performance over the last three years, converting it to WAR, and then divided it up by category to arrive at a value.
“For hitters, we looked at batting average, slugging percentage, power, and on-base percentage, and for pitchers, we looked at three pitches: sweepers, four-seam fastballs, and splitters,” Doolittle explains. “We fed the run estimates from each pitch into the WAR calculation and converted them to fit the underlying metric, then determined what percentage of the major leagues each pitch was in each category, and applied an $8 million per win standard to calculate value.
In other words, they applied the standard WAR calculation to value each division through sabermetrics and then combined them to arrive at a ransom. Doolittle skipped over the divisional calculations and presented the results.
For pitchers, sweepers were valued at $22.3 million, four-seamers at $7.9 million, and splitters at $5.3 million. Hitters were valued at $10 million for batting average, $10 million for power, $7.6 million for patience, $7 million for baserunning, and $2.1 million for other skills. Combining the value of these eight categories gives us a figure of $76 million. That’s his average annual value (AAV).
“If you add up each of his pitches, you can basically estimate that he produces $76 million in value per season on the field,” Doolittle writes, “and if you apply the 10-year contracts that superstars are signing these days to Ohtani, that total comes to $760 million. At 12 years, it’s nearly $1 billion.
But that’s an arithmetic estimate that doesn’t take into account the “aging curve. Companies need to factor in player risk, such as depreciation. Assuming a 12-year contract, Doolittle calculated the depreciation, or how much Ohtani’s value decreases each year, to total $122.3 million over 12 years. But again, this is not a calculation that reflects reality as it is.
Doolittle took a different approach, combining the WAR of the three seasons immediately preceding free agency in 2018 and beyond, weighted by most recent, and then picking eight hitters with three years of similar production to Ohtani’s and averaging them to estimate his price. For hitters, I used Marcus Simien (7 years, $175 million), Marcell Osuna (4 years, $65 million), Zander Bogaerts (11 years, $280 million), and Trey Turner (11 years, $300 million); for pitchers, I used Gerrit Cole (9 years, $324 million), Kevin Gausman (5 years, $110 million), Carlos Rodon (6 years, $162 million), and Robbie Ray (5 years, $115 million).
The resulting average totals were $162 million for hitters and $141.5 million for pitchers, for a total of $335 million. But Doolittle said Ohtani shouldn’t be viewed as a typical free agent like these. He emphasized that the two highest-paid pitchers, Turner and Cole, must be combined to realistically approach Ohtani’s price tag.
He concluded that 11 years, $624 million, $56.7 million AAV is a good estimate of the size of Ohtani’s free agent contract.
‘This estimate means that Ohtani will seek the longest contract and the most money,’ Doolittle said. An Ohtani deal could take many forms. He could opt for a contract with a shorter term and a higher AAV in order to become a free agent again in the near future. Conversely, he could accept a longer contract with a smaller AAV to lower his team’s luxury tax liability. It can also include clauses such as player options, team options, and mutual options.
Doolittle identified six teams that could afford Ohtani’s value: the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, New York Mets, and Chicago Cubs, including his current team, the Los Angeles Angels. Of those, he said the Dodgers, Giants, and Mets are the most likely to sign him.
Of the Dodgers, he said: ‘They spent quietly last winter (not spending money) for one reason. Imagine a big three of Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Ohtani,” he said.
As for San Francisco, he said, “I spent a lot on Aaron Judge last winter. They have a lot of payroll room and need a franchise player,” and the Mets, “Trade Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander for pitching and a designated hitter. I have Steve Cohen’s checkbook.